I have probably been more in touch with USAF than most. After a 23 year career I spent another 20 years working in Acquisition/Logistics at WPAFB.
Personnel costs, both active and retired, are the big cost drivers in budget. For years the DoD has had to put aside money from annual budget for payment to both retirement and Medical costs. With the increase in life expectancy all those costs are growing faster than anticipated.
So what has DoD done over the years to meet requirements for Active Forces. They have traded off personnel for equipment. The leaders believe if they put a Mil Standard of reliability, maintainability etc that they will need fewer people. All of that sounds great, but unless they spend the bucks for Logistics support they will never meet the wartime needs of equipment availability.
Over the years the DoD has become more reliant on "Contractors" to meet personnel needs. When a contract is over, there are no residual costs for long term retirement, Medical care etc. But in order for contractors to survive those same costs, they charge more up front.
I worked Flight Simulation for years, and was involved in WPAFB study to replace active duty simulation Operators/maintainers with contract services. Chow Halls were also turned over to contractors.
But way back in 1980's and before the DoD came up with new Plan. They declared they would do more with less. Over the years they changed name, but kept on believing they could buy availability of equipment. But then along came a "War" in Mid East. We operate in God Awful conditions and have put so many hours on our airframes and support costs have sky rocketed. We used to use a lot of iron bombs. They we had to add guidance to the Dumb iron bombs for better accuracy. Then we went to "Smart" bombs, Cruise Missiles etc. Those cost a ton. I don't know the current cost, but a few years back we costed a cruise missile at about a million each.
As anyone who worked on Aircraft know, hours count. As airframes het older they cost more to maintain. And if parts are available when needed they still require more time to repair. So doing more with less doesn't work. The current Hero's have to put in long hours and cannibal parts to keep some aircraft in the air. We used to try to maintain 85% In Commission Rates. Now the Goal is 80% and USAF Maintainers are not able to meet that. One of biggest issues is number of trained maintainers. During Obama years DoD reduced force levels and even though President Trump has increased spending, it takes time to get new maintainers up to speed on high tech equipment. And the supply chains have been over used and spares are hard to find. The F-16 fleet are approaching the original life expectancy. But we all know with enough money you can keep aircraft flying. But it takes time and money. Look at B-52 and C-130 fleet. They still fly, but at what expense? Our maintainers put in too many hours, are separated from families too much and we still want them to work miracles. Remember the old adage "You can't make chicken salad out of chicken chit"?
So what we need is an end to the mid east war, a few years and a lot of money and we can meet the goal of 80% or higher.
Lorin